SHORT-TERM RENTAL ANALYSIS

Build, rent,
repeat.

The economics of building a 5-bedroom house with pool on 117 acres, using it 6 weeks a year, and renting it the rest.

01 — THE BUILD

What it costs
to build.

Construction cost estimate for a 5-bedroom, 3.5-bath off-grid custom ranch home with pool in Bastrop County. Designed for full self-sufficiency: solar, battery, rainwater, greywater. Built for STR durability and guest appeal.

Home Construction
$960,000 to $1,280,000

3,200 sf custom build. 5 BR / 3.5 BA, open plan kitchen and living, covered porch, mud room, 2-car garage. High-performance envelope with spray foam insulation and standing-seam metal roof (optimized for rainwater collection).

Two scenarios: $300/sf and $400/sf

Pool
$80,000 to $150,000

Gunite pool, 15x30, with stone decking, perimeter fencing, and equipment pad. Variable-speed pump for energy efficiency.

Off-Grid Systems
$120,000 to $180,000

The core of the build. Full energy independence, water autonomy, and waste recycling. See detailed breakdown below.

Site Work
$50,000 to $85,000

Driveway, grading, tie-in to existing well (backup), electrical run from road (backup grid connection), trenching for greywater lines to garden beds.

Soft Costs
$40,000 to $60,000

Permits, architecture, structural and MEP engineering, survey, septic design, solar interconnect application.

Furnishing (STR-ready)
$50,000 to $80,000

Full furnish, linens, kitchen outfitting, outdoor furniture, hot tub, fire pit, outdoor kitchen.

Off-Grid Systems Breakdown

Designed for full self-sufficiency with grid connection as backup. Every system pays for itself over time through eliminated utility bills, water independence, and premium STR positioning.

Solar Array
$40,000 to $60,000

15-20 kW ground-mount or roof-mount array. Sized to cover full home load plus pool pump, HVAC, and EV charging. Ground-mount preferred for easier maintenance and optimal angle.

Battery Backup
$30,000 to $50,000

40-60 kWh battery bank (Tesla Powerwall, Enphase, or equivalent). Enough to run the house for 24-48 hours without sun. Critical for STR reliability during outages.

Rainwater Collection
$15,000 to $25,000

10,000-20,000 gallon poly or steel tanks fed from the metal roof. First-flush diverter, sediment filter, UV purification for potable use. Bastrop County averages 35" of rain/year; a 3,200 sf roof captures ~60,000 gallons annually.

Greywater Recycling
$8,000 to $15,000

Separate plumbing for sinks, showers, and laundry. Filtered and distributed to drip irrigation for gardens, fruit trees, and landscaping. Texas permits greywater systems under TCEQ rules with no permit needed for subsurface irrigation under 400 gallons/day.

Propane Backup Generator
$8,000 to $12,000

22-24 kW whole-house standby generator with automatic transfer switch. Third layer of redundancy behind solar and battery. Runs on the existing propane infrastructure already on site.

Geothermal HVAC
$25,000 to $40,000

Ground-source heat pump using the property's abundant water table. 300-400% more efficient than conventional HVAC. Dramatically reduces the solar array size needed and eliminates noisy outdoor condenser units. Premium upgrade, but the payback is 5-7 years vs. conventional.

Additional Sustainability Features
Included in base build

Passive solar orientation (south-facing windows, deep overhangs for summer shade). Stained concrete floors for thermal mass. ERV (energy recovery ventilator) for fresh air without energy loss. Low-flow fixtures throughout. EV charging station powered by solar. Native, drought-tolerant landscaping irrigated by greywater. Kitchen garden and raised beds for guests (STR differentiator). Composting station. Dark-sky compliant exterior lighting.

Total Build Budget

Item Scenario A ($300/sf) Scenario B ($400/sf)
Home (3,200 sf) $960,000 $1,280,000
Pool + deck $80,000 $150,000
Off-grid systems $120,000 $180,000
Site work $50,000 $85,000
Soft costs $40,000 $60,000
Furnishing $50,000 $80,000
Total $1,300,000 $1,835,000
Per partner (3-way split) $433,333 $611,667
02 — THE MARKET

What the market
pays.

Market data from AirDNA and AirROI for the Bastrop area. The averages tell one story. The premium tier tells another.

282
Active STR Listings
$213
Average ADR / Night
34%
Average Occupancy
$19,480
Avg Annual Revenue

Those are market-wide averages (avg 3.1 BR), dragged down by small cabins and spare rooms.

For a premium 5BR ranch with pool:

Premium ranch properties with pools, 5 bedrooms, and acreage command 2 to 3x the market average ADR. Top-quartile performers hit 53%+ occupancy. Unique ranch properties with fishing, a pool, and acreage have strong, differentiated appeal.

$450 to $650
Comparable ADR / Night
45% to 55%
Comparable Occupancy
$250 to $350
Cleaning Fee / Stay
3 to 7 nights
Average Stay Length
3 to 4 nights weekends, 5 to 7 holidays and summer

STR Comps in Bastrop County

Comparable rural STR listings. Note the bedroom counts and amenity sets.

None of these comps have 5 bedrooms, a pool, AND 117 acres. A property like this would be category-defining for the Bastrop STR market.
03 — THE MODEL

Six weeks for us,
forty-six for them.

Availability

52 weeks per year, minus 6 weeks of personal use, leaves 46 available weeks (322 available nights). Not all available nights book. The model runs three scenarios.

Revenue Drivers

ADR (average daily rate), occupancy rate against available nights, and cleaning fees passed through to guests. Platform fees (Airbnb 3%) netted against gross.

Revenue Model

Conservative Base Case Optimistic
ADR $450 $550 $650
Occupancy (of available) 40% 50% 60%
Booked nights 129 161 193
Gross booking revenue $58,050 $88,550 $125,450
Cleaning fees (avg 35 stays x $300) $10,500 $13,050 $15,600
Gross Revenue $68,550 $101,600 $141,050

Operating Expenses

Expense Annual
Property management (20% of gross) $13,710 to $28,210
Cleaning costs (pass-through, net zero) $0
Supplies, linens, consumables $4,000
Insurance (STR rider) $3,500
Maintenance + repairs $6,000
Utilities (propane, internet, Starlink; solar covers electric) $4,200
Platform fees (Airbnb 3%) $2,057 to $4,232
STR permit / HOT tax (varies) $2,000
Total OpEx $38,467 to $55,142

Net Operating Income + Debt Service

Construction loan at 6% interest, 30-year term. Scenario A ($1.3M build) = $7,796/mo debt service. Scenario B ($1.835M build) = $11,003/mo.

Conservative Base Case Optimistic
Gross Revenue $68,550 $101,600 $141,050
Operating Expenses $38,467 $45,320 $55,142
NOI (before debt) $30,083 $56,280 $85,908
Scenario A: $1.3M Build at 6%
Annual debt service $93,552 $93,552 $93,552
Cash flow after debt ($63,469) ($37,272) ($7,644)
DSCR 0.32x 0.60x 0.92x
Scenario B: $1.835M Build at 6%
Annual debt service $132,036 $132,036 $132,036
Cash flow after debt ($101,953) ($75,756) ($46,128)
DSCR 0.23x 0.43x 0.65x

DSCR = Debt Service Coverage Ratio (NOI / Debt Service). A DSCR below 1.0 means STR income alone does not cover the mortgage. The gap represents the out-of-pocket carry cost for partners, offset by equity building, personal use value, and property appreciation.

04 — THE BOTTOM LINE

What you
actually get.

You get a vacation home.
6 weeks a year on 117 acres with a pool, stocked ponds, and no neighbors. Austin is 60 minutes away.
It offsets, but does not cover, the carry.
At base case, STR generates $56K NOI against $93K annual debt service on the $1.3M build (6%, 30yr). That covers 60% of the mortgage. The gap is ~$3,100/month split across partners. Add the existing house as a second STR unit and the gap narrows significantly. The off-grid systems also eliminate utility bills, improving NOI over time.
The optionality is real.
If STR underperforms, the new house becomes the primary residence and the existing house becomes the STR (lower rate, lower expectations, still produces income). Or you sell the improved property at a premium to the $2.3M you paid.
The real return is in the asset.
A $2.3M ranch with a $1.3M off-grid custom home, pool, solar, and rainwater collection is a $3.6M+ improved property. The STR income subsidizes the carry while you build equity. The off-grid features are a permanent reduction in operating cost and a selling point that commands premium rates from guests who want that experience.

Key Risks

01
Construction cost overruns. Budget 15 to 20% contingency above the mid-range estimate.
02
Bastrop County could tighten STR regulations. Currently minimal, but the regulatory environment is evolving statewide.
03
Seasonality means cash flow is lumpy, not monthly. Revenue concentrates in spring, summer, and holiday weekends.
04
Remote location limits weeknight demand. This is a weekend and holiday play, not a nightly-demand urban STR.