Standard $/acre comparisons are misleading when properties carry different levels of improvement. A 73-acre ranch with a $1.5M custom home trades at $45,563/acre, but that does not mean the land is worth $45K/acre. It means the improvements inflated the per-acre metric.
This analysis uses the cost approach to isolate land value:
This is the same methodology a certified appraiser would use in the cost approach to value. The result strips out the noise of improvements and tells us what the market is actually paying for raw land in this corridor.
| Component | Benchmark |
|---|---|
| Residential (above avg) | $250/sf RCN |
| Residential (average) | $200/sf RCN |
| Residential (basic) | $175/sf RCN |
| Depreciation | Age-life, 50yr, straight-line |
| Barn | $40,000 |
| Guest house | $75,000 |
| Workshop | $30,000 |
| Pool (depreciated) | $60,000 |
| Perimeter fencing | $5/linear ft |
| Cross-fencing | $150/acre |
| Improved pond | $25,000 each |
| Water well | $20,000 |
| # | Status | Address | Acres | Sale Price | Residence | Outbldgs | Fencing | Water | Pool | Total Impr. | Implied Land | Adj. Land $/Ac |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Closed | 0 Highway 290, Paige, Bastrop | 135.5 | $3,300,000 | — | — | $68,915 | $25,000 | — | $93,915 | $3,206,085 | $23,661 |
| 2 | Closed | 314 Big Sky Ranch Rd, Smithville, Bastrop | 73.5 | $3,350,000 | $1,524,600 | $115,000 | $35,792 | $45,000 | $60,000 | $1,830,792 | $1,519,208 | $20,662 |
| 3 | Closed | 1518 Old Sayers Rd, Bastrop, Bastrop | 144.2 | $2,796,698 | — | $75,000 | $50,117 | $45,000 | — | $170,117 | $2,626,581 | $18,221 |
| 4 | Closed | 1518 Old Sayers Rd, Elgin, Bastrop | 144.2 | $2,500,000 | — | — | — | $25,000 | — | $25,000 | $2,475,000 | $17,169 |
| 5 | Closed | 1241 County Road 406, Lexington, Lee | 135.4 | $2,375,000 | $121,900 | $55,000 | $68,884 | $20,000 | — | $299,384 | $2,075,616 | $15,329 |
| 6 | Closed | 234 Sandy Rd, Rosanky, Bastrop | 115.1 | $1,900,000 | $123,984 | $10,000 | $44,774 | — | — | $178,758 | $1,721,242 | $14,960 |
| 7 | Closed | 0000 Gotier Trace Rd, Paige, Bastrop | 106.4 | $2,800,000 | $972,875 | $150,000 | $43,050 | $45,000 | — | $1,210,925 | $1,589,075 | $14,940 |
| 8 | Closed | 769 High Grove Rd, Cedar Creek, Bastrop | 112.5 | $1,625,000 | $280,440 | — | — | $25,000 | — | $305,440 | $1,319,560 | $11,729 |
| 9 | Closed | 4300 County Road 481, Thrall, Lee | 120.7 | $1,900,000 | $340,200 | $45,000 | $63,947 | $25,000 | $60,000 | $601,347 | $1,298,653 | $10,764 |
| 10 | Closed | 1595 Highway 95 S, Smithville, Bastrop | 174.8 | $4,200,000 | $2,314,770 | $30,000 | $26,227 | $45,000 | — | $2,415,997 | $1,784,003 | $10,203 |
| 11 | Closed | 239 Barton Oaks Dr #A, Smithville, Bastrop | 172 | $2,850,000 | $744,000 | $338,000 | $80,544 | $25,000 | $60,000 | $1,297,944 | $1,552,056 | $9,024 |
| 12 | Closed | 235 Acorn Rd, Lockhart, Caldwell | 99.6 | $1,200,000 | $84,000 | $115,000 | $41,666 | $25,000 | $60,000 | $342,466 | $857,534 | $8,607 |
| 13 | Closed | 490 John Craft Rd, Red Rock, Bastrop | 77.2 | $800,000 | $392,750 | $10,000 | $36,679 | — | — | $439,429 | $360,571 | $4,670 |
| 14 | Pending | 250 Reids Bnd, Bastrop, Bastrop | 132.3 | $6,799,000 | — | $180,000 | — | $20,000 | — | $200,000 | $6,599,000 | $49,865 |
| 15 | Pending | TBD (88.852 Acres) Smith Rd, Bastrop, Ba... | 88.9 | $4,000,000 | — | — | — | — | — | — | $4,000,000 | $45,019 |
| 16 | Pending | 6019 Fm 3158, Dale, Caldwell | 79.2 | $1,821,600 | $67,060 | $5,000 | — | $20,000 | — | $125,660 | $1,695,940 | $21,413 |
| 17 | Pending | 452 Ponderosa Rd, Bastrop, Bastrop | 89.7 | $1,900,000 | — | — | — | $20,000 | — | $20,000 | $1,880,000 | $20,949 |
| 18 | Under Contract | 624 County Road 306, Rockdale, Milam | 117.4 | $3,950,000 | $111,040 | $50,000 | — | $25,000 | $60,000 | $246,040 | $3,703,960 | $31,539 |
| 19 | Under Contract | 000 FM 671, Luling, Caldwell | 135.4 | $2,302,650 | — | — | — | — | — | — | $2,302,650 | $17,000 |
| 20 | Under Contract | 147 Blue Sky Dr, Bastrop, Bastrop | 77.4 | $1,347,500 | — | $40,000 | $48,341 | $20,000 | — | $108,341 | $1,239,159 | $16,006 |
| 21 | Under Contract | 3400 Kirk Cors, Harwood, Caldwell | 83.2 | $1,000,000 | $402,720 | $68,000 | $38,072 | $25,000 | — | $533,792 | $466,208 | $5,604 |
| 22 | Active | 531 Highway 71 W, Smithville, Bastrop | 152.6 | $6,522,260 | $176,000 | $65,000 | $74,470 | $45,000 | — | $360,470 | $6,161,790 | $40,366 |
| 23 | Active | 303 Bob's Trl, Bastrop, Bastrop | 100 | $4,300,000 | $946,000 | $310,000 | $56,742 | $20,000 | — | $1,332,742 | $2,967,258 | $29,673 |
| 24 | Active | 15657 Fm 86, Dale, Caldwell | 103.2 | $2,450,000 | $104,720 | $100,000 | $57,867 | — | — | $279,387 | $2,170,613 | $21,043 |
| 25 | Active | 5066 Fm 535, Cedar Creek, Bastrop | 89.1 | $1,869,000 | $85,550 | $40,000 | $39,404 | $20,000 | — | $218,554 | $1,650,446 | $18,521 |
| 26 | Active | 256 Greasy Bend Rd, Smithville, Bastrop | 114.3 | $2,100,000 | — | — | — | — | — | — | $2,100,000 | $18,378 |
| 27 | Active | 1584 County Road 226 Rd, Giddings, Lee | 108.9 | $3,850,000 | $1,584,720 | $210,000 | — | — | $60,000 | $1,955,520 | $1,894,480 | $17,392 |
| 28 | Active | 137 Shady Oaks Loop, Cedar Creek, Bastrop | 97.0 | $1,800,000 | $41,335 | $40,000 | — | $45,000 | — | $126,335 | $1,673,665 | $17,262 |
| 29 | Active | 170 Zack Ln, Giddings, Bastrop | 72.8 | $1,375,000 | $53,480 | $130,000 | — | $25,000 | — | $208,480 | $1,166,520 | $16,028 |
| 30 | Active | 1648 Jeddo Rd, Rosanky, Bastrop | 71.2 | $1,400,000 | $60,900 | $255,000 | — | $25,000 | — | $340,900 | $1,059,100 | $14,879 |
| 31 | Active | TBD County Road 103, Paige, Lee | 142.4 | $2,500,000 | $211,200 | $130,000 | $49,809 | $25,000 | $60,000 | $476,009 | $2,023,991 | $14,215 |
| 32 | Active | TBD High Grove Rd, Cedar Creek, Bastrop | 291 | $3,600,000 | — | — | — | $25,000 | $60,000 | $85,000 | $3,515,000 | $12,079 |
| 33 | Active | 5637 Jeddo Rd, Waelder, Fayette | 117 | $1,600,000 | $49,770 | $55,000 | $62,701 | $45,000 | — | $212,471 | $1,387,529 | $11,859 |
| — | Subject | 762 Karisch Rd, Giddings, Bastrop | 116.9 | $2,300,000 | $251,776 | $55,000 | $62,682 | $45,000 | — | $414,458 | $1,885,542 | $16,123 |
| Metric | Raw $/Acre | Adjusted Land $/Acre |
|---|---|---|
| Min | $10,361 | $4,670 |
| Median | $17,343 | $14,940 |
| Mean | $20,017 | $13,819 |
| Max | $45,563 | $23,661 |
| Subject | $19,668 | $16,123 |
The adjustment reveals a tighter range. Once improvements are stripped out, the spread in land values narrows from $10K to $46K/acre (raw) to $5K to $24K/acre (adjusted). The outliers are explained:
Hwy 290 at $23,661/ac trades at a premium because it is raw land with significant highway frontage, likely priced for development potential rather than agricultural use.
John Craft Rd at $4,670/ac trades at a steep discount because the 2020 sale price was nearly consumed by the improvement value of the 3,142 sf home built in 2001. The implied land value may understate true land value if the home was functionally obsolescent.
The subject at $16,123/ac sits above the adjusted median of $14,940/ac. The $414,458 improvement value is modest for a 117-acre ranch: a 2,248 sf home built in 2004 with barns, five ponds, two wells, and full cross-fencing. The asking price implies the seller is pricing the land at a slight premium to the comp set.
The five comps most similar to the subject (100 to 140 acres, Bastrop County, with improvements, closed within 12 months) indicate an adjusted land range of $11,729 to $17,169/acre. Applying the median of those five ($14,940/ac) to the subject's 116.94 acres and adding back the subject's improvements:
This suggests the asking price of $2,300,000 is approximately 6.4% above the improvement-adjusted indicated value. A reasonable offer range would be $2,050,000 to $2,175,000.
| Approach | Indicated Value | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Raw Comp Analysis | $2,050,000 to $3,080,000 (Q1 to Q3) | 25% |
| Improvement-Adjusted | $2,030,000 to $2,162,000 (mean to median) | 50% |
| Income Approach (STR) | N/A (not currently income-producing) | 0% |
| Cost Approach | $1,747,000 (land) + $414,000 (impr.) = $2,161,000 | 25% |
The improvement-adjusted analysis receives the most weight because it isolates the variable that matters most in ranch transactions: what buyers actually pay for the dirt. The raw comp analysis is given less weight due to the distortion from varying improvement levels. The cost approach confirms the adjusted analysis.
At the asking price of $2,300,000, the property is priced 6 to 10% above our reconciled value. This does not mean it won't sell at asking, but it does mean there is room to negotiate. A credible opening offer of $2,000,000 to $2,050,000, with support from this analysis, gives the buyer a strong negotiating position.