Investment Deep Dive

The real numbers.

A paired-sales analysis of the five best comps, and every revenue lever we can pull.

01 — BEST FIVE COMPS

Apples to apples.

We selected the five closed sales most similar to the subject based on acreage (80 to 180 ac), county (Bastrop or Lee), presence of a residence, recency (last 18 months), and rural/agricultural character. Each comp's sale price is then adjusted for differences from the subject: time of sale, location, acreage, residence quality, outbuildings, water features, fencing, pool, and mineral rights. Positive adjustments mean the comp is inferior (we add value); negative adjustments mean the comp is superior (we subtract value).

$2,800,000
Gotier Trace Rd, Paige
106.4 AC · BASTROP COUNTY
4,525 SF · 5BR/4BA · BUILT 2019
CLOSED AUG 2025 · MASONRY
Barn, guest house, workshop, RV storage. Creek, pond, well. Perimeter fenced.
Superior residence ($972K vs $252K), inferior water (1 pond vs 5).
$1,900,000
CR 481, Thrall
120.7 AC · LEE COUNTY
3,150 SF · 3BR/4BA · BUILT 2003
CLOSED DEC 2025 · POOL · CROSS-FENCED
Barn, outbuilding. Pond.
Most similar in character. Pool offsets smaller lot. Cross-fenced like subject.
$2,375,000
CR 406, Lexington
135.4 AC · LEE COUNTY
2,438 SF · 3BR/3BA · BUILT 1975
CLOSED FEB 2026 · STONE/MASONRY
Barns, corrals, garages, sheds. Cross-fenced. Well.
Closest in recent timing. Larger acreage offsets older home.
$1,900,000
Sandy Rd, Rosanky
115.1 AC · BASTROP COUNTY
984 SF · 1BR/2BA · BUILT 2012
CLOSED OCT 2025 · HARDIPLANK
Outbuilding, sheds. Perimeter fenced.
Nearly identical acreage. Minimal improvements, so almost all land value.
$1,200,000
Acorn Rd, Lockhart
99.6 AC · CALDWELL COUNTY
600 SF · 1BR/1BA · BUILT 2016
CLOSED SEP 2025 · METAL SIDING (BARNDO)
Pool. Outbuildings, workshop, second residence. 2 ponds.
Lowest sale price. Minimal residence. Caldwell County (slight discount).
ADJUSTMENT GRID

Paired-sales adjustments.

Adjustment Comp 1 Comp 2 Comp 3 Comp 4 Comp 5
Sale Price $2,800,000 $1,900,000 $2,375,000 $1,900,000 $1,200,000
Time (0.4%/mo) +$89,600 +$30,400 +$19,000 +$45,600 +$33,600
Location $0 $0 $0 $0 +$25,000
Acreage ($13K/ac) +$137,475 -$48,230 -$240,084 +$24,492 +$224,965
Residence -$721,099 -$88,424 +$129,876 +$127,792 +$167,776
Outbuildings -$95,000 +$10,000 $0 +$45,000 -$60,000
Water (ponds/wells/creek) +$105,000 +$140,000 +$145,000 +$165,000 +$140,000
Fencing +$19,630 -$1,268 -$6,204 +$17,906 +$21,014
Pool $0 -$60,000 $0 $0 -$60,000
Garage $0 -$67,200 -$33,600 $0 -$16,800
Oil/Mineral Rights +$37,500 +$37,500 +$37,500 +$37,500 +$37,500
Net Adjustment -$426,894 -$47,222 +$51,488 +$463,290 +$513,055
Adjusted Price $2,373,106 $1,852,778 $2,426,488 $2,363,290 $1,713,055

Value Conclusion

The five adjusted sale prices range from $1,713,055 to $2,426,488.

$2,363,290
Median Adjusted
$2,145,743
Mean Adjusted
$2,300,000
Asking Price
The asking price falls 2.7% below the paired-sales median. The subject's five ponds, two wells, creek frontage, and producing oil well create substantial upward adjustments against comps that lack these features. On a paired-sales basis, the asking price appears fair and potentially favorable to the buyer.
Recommended offer range: $2,100,000 to $2,200,000 (a 4 to 9% discount, justified by the improvement-extraction analysis showing $2.03M to $2.16M indicated value). The paired-sales analysis supports the asking price, but the extraction analysis suggests room. Split the difference.
02 — REVENUE STRATEGY

Ten levers to pull.

The total annual carry on this property, assuming 80% LTV on a $2.1M purchase and 100% financing on a $1.3M build (Scenario A), is approximately $227,000/year. That includes debt service on both loans at 6%, property tax (ag exempt), and insurance. Here is every revenue stream available, what it takes to activate each one, and what it produces.

STR: New 5BR House
$56,280/yr
Startup: Included in build Medium
46 available weeks (6 for personal use), $550 ADR, 50% occupancy. Off-grid features and pool are strong differentiators. Managed by a local STR management company at 20%.
STR: Existing 4BR House
$25,859/yr
Startup: $25,000 Medium
The existing 2,248 sf home becomes a second rental unit. $300 ADR, 40% occupancy. Modest but "authentic ranch house" positioning. Can run on the same management company.
Event Venue (Barn)
$47,000/yr
Startup: $150,000 Hard
The barn is already partially converted. Finish it with HVAC, restrooms, lighting, and a landscape package. 15 events/year at $5,000 average. Weddings, corporate retreats, family reunions. Requires event insurance and a day-of coordinator.
Community Solar Lease
$15,000/yr
Startup: $0 Hard (timeline)
Lease 15 acres of unused pasture to a community solar developer at $1,000/acre/year. Requires utility interconnection study and county approval. 12 to 24 month lead time, but pure passive income once active.
RV/Boat Storage
$9,300/yr
Startup: $25,000 Easy
Grade and gravel 15 pads near the property entrance. $75/month per space, 80% occupancy. Gated entry with code. Minimal maintenance. Austin overflow market is real.
Hipcamp / Glamping
$7,000/yr
Startup: $8,000 Easy
4 primitive campsites near the ponds. Fire pits, composting toilets, cleared tent pads. $60/night average through Hipcamp. The stocked ponds, sunsets, and ranch setting sell themselves.
Hay Sales
$3,500/yr
Startup: $0 Easy
20 acres of coastal bermuda, 2 cuttings/year, ~100 round bales. Custom cutting at $35/bale, sell at $70. Local demand is steady.
Oil Well Royalties
$3,000/yr
Startup: $0 Passive
Existing producing well, 50% mineral interest included in sale. Pure mailbox money.
Hunting Access
$1,300/yr
Startup: $2,000 Easy
Hog management permits and dove hunting on the ponds. Seasonal access sold to 2 to 3 groups. Not a trophy hunting lease, but covers itself.
Cattle Lease
$1,120/yr
Startup: $0 Easy
Existing lease at $14/acre on 80 acres of improved pasture. The income is negligible, but the ag exemption it maintains saves $20,000 to $30,000/year in property tax. This is the most important "revenue" stream on the property.
STACKING REVENUE

Tiered implementation.

Tier Streams Net Revenue Coverage Monthly Gap Add'l Investment
Tier 1: Core Both STRs + Cattle + Oil + Hay $89,759 40% $11,436/mo $25,000
Tier 2: Easy adds + Hipcamp + RV Storage + Hunting $107,359 47% $9,970/mo +$35,000
Tier 3: Event venue + Barn event venue $154,359 68% $6,053/mo +$150,000
Tier 4: Solar lease + Community solar $169,359 75% $4,803/mo +$0
03 — CLOSING THE GAP

The last 25%.

Even with all ten revenue streams at base case projections, we cover 75% of the carry. The remaining $4,803/month is real out-of-pocket cost, split across partners. Here are the levers that close it:

1. Higher STR rates.

The model uses $550/night for the new house. A 5BR off-grid ranch with pool, solar, rainwater, and 117 acres has no direct comp in the Bastrop STR market. If ADR hits $650 (optimistic scenario), the new house alone generates $85,908 NOI, adding $29,628 to the total. That gets us to 88% coverage.

2. Down payment on the land.

The model assumes 80% LTV. A 40% down payment ($840K cash) drops the land mortgage from $120,864 to $90,648/year, saving $30,216. With Tier 4 revenue, that puts us at $199,575 against $196,784 carry. Breakeven achieved.

3. Partner equity.

With 3 partners, the remaining gap at Tier 2 (before event venue) is $9,970/month or $3,323 per partner. That is a manageable carry for a property that is building equity, providing personal use, and generating six figures in gross revenue.

4. Negotiate the purchase price.

Our analysis supports $2.1M. Buying at $2.1M instead of $2.3M saves $200K in principal, which at 6% saves $14,388/year in debt service. Combined with Tier 3 revenue, coverage jumps to 74%.

5. Phase the build.

Start with the existing house as STR immediately (Tier 1 without new house). Revenue from the existing house funds the first phase of construction. Build the new house in Year 2 when you have cash flow data and can right-size the project.

THE PATH TO BREAKEVEN

Four scenarios.

Scenario Revenue Carry Gap Per Partner (3-way)
All 10 streams, 80% LTV $169,359 $227,000 $57,641 $1,601/mo
All 10 streams, 60% LTV $169,359 $196,784 $27,425 $762/mo
All 10 + optimistic STR, 60% LTV $199,575 $196,784 +$2,791 Breakeven
Buy at $2.1M, all 10, 60% LTV $169,359 $182,396 $13,037 $362/mo